The pistol brace deadline is looming for gun owners across the country. The Firearms Policy Coalition is asking for an injunction in Mock v Garland, but right now it looks like this unconstitutional rule is going to go into effect.

But why now? Why is the ATF going after pistol braces? Are there many crimes committed with braced weapons? The ATF can’t provide statistics on that. Have any mass shooters used a SBR to commit their crimes? The only one I can think of is the King Sooper’s shooting in Boulder CO a few years back. There is no evidence that the pistol brace played any role in the shooting. It’s not like the gunman used the concealability of the shorter barrel to sneak in somewhere. The shooting could have been carried out by a rifle with a 16″ barrel as well.

I don’t want to go all crazy conspiracy theorist, but there are several data points here that don’t make sense until you line them up. Turning pistols that are hardly ever used in crimes into “short-barreled rifles” via agency decree just doesn’t make sense. Unless you’ve got something completely nefarious in mind.

Let’s go through this step-by-step. First Dot: The ATF started making house calls last summer. The gun community was abuzz when this video made the rounds:

Why did the ATF do that? Did they expect that someone making straw purchases would just let them into their house to conduct a search? If they had probable cause, they’d have gotten a warrant and wouldn’t be asking to be let in. This guy just happened to have a doorbell camera. But the ATF would have known that by simply looking at the house from the street.

It’s extremely possible that the ATF was actually looking for a case where their house call would be on video. Just assemble the list of people who have made multiple firearms purchases recently, then do a drive-by and look for video recording equipment. Then show up with a bunch of guys in full battle rattle to make a house call that will be recorded and most likely go viral.

We can therefore conclude that the ATF wanted this to happen. They wanted gun owners to know that they can make house calls and show up at your house in a very intimidating fashion. They’re trying to ratchet up the tension.

Second Dot: The timing of the pistol brace rule. Why even bother with this? The ATF had already rejected this idea back under the Obama administration. They reconsidered it and then rejected it again after GOP pressure. There wasn’t any call for a pistol brace ban. Not even the extreme left wing gun control groups were calling for it. Why now? Under the new rule, the deadline for pistol brace registration is May 31, 2023. Surely the ATF expects that many gun owners won’t comply.

Third Dot: Biden started calling for a ban on semi-automatic rifles in December 2022. He had just signed a major gun control bill in July 2022. In true fashion, after getting a few Republicans to peel off and support this legislation, it wasn’t the end. The left restarted their calls for the next step just a few months later. Biden’s call for a new AWB coincides with the ATF’s pistol brace shenanigans. Coincidence?

A new AWB is dead on arrival in a Republican House. So why waste political capital on this? It can’t just be to fire up the base, because lots of Democrats are gun owners too. When you explain to people that their detachable magazine hunting rifle is going to become illegal, the legislation becomes unpopular.

Fourth Dot: The ATF has stepped up its hiring of lower-paid special agents. There was a story going around the gun community a while back that the ATF was looking for “special agents” to be paid in the $22/hour range. That’s about what you can make flipping burgers in Gallatin County. A reasonable conclusion is that these are the people that will start calling on gun dealers in June. They’ll be going through records looking for people who purchased weapons that are now defined as SBRs. This list will be cross-indexed against the list of people who registered them as NFA weapons. They’ll have a long list of non-registrants to pick from.

Here’s the horrible conclusion when you connect the dots: They’re trying to poke the bear. This is a coordinated strategy to trigger a reaction so abhorrent that even the Republicans in Congress will go along with a gun control regime of epic proportions. They won’t be stopping at an assault weapons ban. They are coming for your guns.

The doorbell video referenced above? The ATF will be re-enacting that scene, but based upon the list of unregistered SBRs they’ll have compiled. There will be videos everywhere of these house calls. Eventually, some idiot is going to decide that they can only take his guns from his cold dead hands. That’s exactly what they want. That situation could repeat. The media will cheerfully play the videos of violent confrontations and represent it as an insurrection. For once, they’d be right. And they’d have the optics on their side as the means to shift public opinion. Repeal of the Second Amendment could even be accomplished.

The only answer here is not to engage. Refuse to play the game. If the ATF shows up at your house, just politely decline to let them in. If they have a warrant or could get a warrant, they wouldn’t be asking for permission. Do not show up at the door armed. Just tell them “No, thank you.” If you’re in Montana, you could consider dialing 911: “Hi, my address is ________ and there is a group of armed men here threatening me. I’ve asked them to leave my property and they’ve refused.”

But whatever you do, don’t give them what they want. Vote correctly in the next election. If there isn’t a violent response, the ATF going door to door harassing people will be more than even most Democrats will be able to stomach.