All is proceeding as I have foreseen. Well, mostly.

About a year ago (August 18, 2023) I posted the article “Yes, They Are Coming for Your Guns. And Donald Trump is Going to Help Them.” That article made a number of predictions:

• Trump would get a mugshot in the Fulton County case. That mugshot became famous.
• Trump would be convicted of at least 1 felony charge and perhaps several in the Alvin Bragg case. I was correct, but not in scope. I didn’t predict 34 felony convictions. In subsequent articles I predicted that he would be incarcerated immediately. Clearly I was wrong on that, but Judge Merchan has set sentencing for late September and has not ruled on the motions to set aside the verdict.
• Trump would be convicted of at least one felony in the Florida documents case. I did not predict that the judge would dismiss the case, but that’s still a possibility as it’s being appealed.
• I predicted that the Jan 6 case in DC would go to trial and Trump would use it to relitigate the election. I was totally wrong and didn’t see the Supreme Court sending the case back with a ruling on immunity. But that case is still not done. Jack Smith now just has to prove that Trump was not acting in his official capacity. Still, it’s doubtful anything happens before the election and if Trump wins, all of the federal cases will evaporate.
• The ATF would continue to crack down on FFLs and normal people. Wow, was that an understatement!
• Joe Biden will step down. Looks like I’m about to be proven right on that one. When you’ve lost Jon Tester, you’re done.
• Gavin Newsom will be the replacement. That remains to be seen, but with an open convention that’s a real possibility. Last summer Gavin’s stock was higher, however.
• I said Joe Biden would refuse to debate the convicted felon. I was wrong about that, and it turned out to be a horrible move for Joe. Things would be different today if the debate hadn’t happened. The media could still cover for Biden and would have done so dutifully.
• I predicted that there would be a reaction to the imprisonment of Trump that turned into widespread violence, and that this would be the final straw that the gun grabbers needed to convince the middle to go along with complete civilian disarmament. This is still in the status of wait and see.
• I said the only way to avoid this would be for Trump to withdraw. We needed to get behind a different candidate. That didn’t happen, but there’s still a way to avoid the really bad outcome.

Skip ahead to January 2024 and the Texas border standoff. In “A Perfect Storm” I stated that there was a chance that the border standoff could kick things off. Luckily I was wrong. In “Rough Times Ahead” later that month I predicted that the Bragg trial would take Trump off the campaign trail. That was correct, but Trump out-maneuvered that by holding daily press conferences and daring the judge to find him in contempt. Luckily the Truckers for Trump thing fizzled and there was no reaction to Judge Engoron’s verdict against Trump.

That brings us up to today. I’ve been right about more than I was wrong. Some things have been delayed, and some things were actually worse than predicted. I didn’t predict the assassination attempt. I don’t think anyone could have predicted that such an event would turn into an historical and iconic pro-Trump image.

The polls right now show a comfortable Trump victory in November:

Don’t get cocky, however. There’s now a different way out of this. Here’s the scenario. Judge Merchan could set aside the verdict based upon the fact that evidence that was used in the trial was protected by immunity. Trump then wins the election and while the left has their usual mostly peaceful protests and burns down several of their own cities, it doesn’t turn into widespread violence culminating with popular capitulation on civilian disarmament. Trump might be quick to quell those riots this time with the national guard, but even the normal Democrat brownshirts exchanging gunfire with troops won’t convince people to give up their guns in light of recent events.

But I don’t think this movie is over yet. The Democrats can still replace Biden with a hugely anti-gun politician such as Newsom. They could win the election, and come down hard on the expected protests for a stolen election and get the widespread violence they crave. It might take a little longer for them to get around to packing the Supreme Court and passing their gun bans, but it’s clearly a route. There’s a big difference when the violence used for the anti-gun motivation is coming from the people who would need to give up their guns for it to work.

Judge Merchan, faced with polls showing a Trump landslide in November, could sentence him to a year of incarceration during the sentencing phase in late September. Or give him a suspended sentence but require an ankle monitor and that he not leave the jurisdiction. Trump being president would not impact the State of New York’s ability to hold him. That could easily be the October surprise. Trump would easily win the election from a jail cell or house arrest, and when he isn’t released the country is plunged into a full blown constitutional crisis. It’s easy to see how that could turn into widespread violence.

A year ago I didn’t see a way out of this. Today, I see some hope. It will be a matter of making Trump’s victory “Too Big to Rig.” He has to win by more than the margin of fraud, in too many places. It’s one thing to rig an election if you’re down to just a few swing states with margins in the few thousands. It’s quite another when traditionally blue states are in play.

If Joe Biden doesn’t step down and he’s the candidate, then we’ll know that they’re either putting everything into an October surprise, or they’re throwing in the towel. The Democrats still have the media and their extremely well financed shock troops. We haven’t heard from BLM or Antifa in a while, but they’re still out there. Either way, buckle up and don’t get played. Don’t get suckered into giving the left the violence they crave.