UPDATE: I posted a link to this article on the r/progun reddit and wow did it blow up. Sadly, not many of the commenters seem to have read this post. If you’re coming here, you should read the whole thing, because we probably agree on more than you realize from just the headline.

“No one is coming for your guns.” We’re told that repeatedly by the left, but there are hundreds of examples of politicians telling us this is exactly what they want to do. For example, Gavin Newsom is proposing a constitutional amendment:

He was circumspect about its prospects but predicted that a continued wave of mass carnage could someday tip the scales for those seeking meaningful action. “If we reach the threshold of these mass shootings, and we have another few dozen of these in the next year or two, I think people are at a breaking point in this country, and you may see this accelerate in a pretty profound and pronounced way.”

The politicization of mass shootings in unarmed victim zones such as schools and workplaces has not accomplished their goal of reaching a “breaking point.” But there’s an election coming up in 2024, and it presents some unique opportunities for leftists to finally accomplish their dream of mass disarmament in the US. The roadmap is pretty clear if you’re willing to connect some dots.

Donald Trump is Going to Prison

Trump currently faces 4 indictments with a total of 91 charges. Ninety-one charges! Do you really think not a single one will stick? These are in hand-selected jurisdictions where jurors are likely to be extremely anti-Trump. These are all felony counts, so a single conviction will result in prison time. There is no chance he is going to skate on all 91 charges. At the very least, there will be a jury that will “split the difference” and come back with a guilty verdict on a few charges. There is an orange jumpsuit in his future. These trials will likely be televised. After all, you can’t put the front-running candidate of a major political party in prison without being completely transparent.

If he somehow escapes that, Trump’s next trial is May 20, 2024, in the classified documents case, with 40 charges. That will be a federal trial in the southern district of Florida, so Trump might get a favorable jury. But with 40 charges against him and a previous conviction, he’s likely going to get convicted of something. It’s also likely he’ll be defending himself while he’s incarcerated in New York.

We still don’t have trial dates for the Fulton County case. Trump is required to surrender by August 25. There is going to be a mugshot. The prosecutor wants to proceed quickly, but even the most left-wing judge would have a difficult time scheduling the trial before the prior pending trials since even defendant Trump has the right to counsel, and that right would be seriously jeopardized by having to defend multiple cases simultaneously. Trump will most likely try to get this trial removed to Federal court, which will also delay things.

The Real Wildcard — The January 6 Indictment

Trump has been indicted on 4 felony counts in the January 6 case. There is no date set yet, but the special counsel has proposed Jan 2, 2024. This is unlikely, but read on. If that date is granted, this all gets much worse.

At first, I thought this case against Trump was a blunder. The commonly accepted wisdom on the 2020 elections is that there were 63 lawsuits on this matter and the Trump team lost all of them. The matter is settled. The 2020 election was without fraud. Google and Facebook will ban you for saying otherwise. People had put it behind them. If your media diet consists of all mainstream sources, you never even knew there was a real controversy.

There’s a problem with that common wisdom, however. None of those election lawsuits went to trial. Not one subpoena was ever issued. No witnesses were cross-examined. Courts routinely cited a lack of standing and dismissed the cases. But the feds have charged Trump with fueling the events of January 6, 2021 with lies about the election results:

The attack on our nation’s Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, was an unprecedented assault on the seat of American democracy,” said Justice Department special counsel Jack Smith, whose office has spent months investigating Trump. “It was fueled by lies, lies by the defendant targeted at obstructing a bedrock function of the U.S. government: the nation’s process of collecting, counting and certifying the results of the presidential election.

Trump’s defense will be that he wasn’t lying. He truly believed that the 2020 election was stolen:

In response to the most recent indictments, Trump’s attorneys indicated they finally have a platform to “fully re-litigate every single issue that occurred during the 2020 election,” of which there were many.  The most important issue in America may finally get its due. 

He now gets to relitigate 2020. He gets the ability to subpoena witnesses in his defense. All of the evidence that they wanted to introduce in court in 2020 will now see the light of day.

What ever happened with the data that was the subject of the movie 2000 Mules? There was no follow-up, no convictions. But the data set includes the names and addresses of hundreds of people that made multiple deliveries to drop boxes. Trump can get that information and he can depose those people. Some of them may live in jurisdictions with a local prosecutor willing to follow up if Trump uncovers something, so there may be a chance to get some people to “flip.”

Trump doesn’t have to prove 2020 was stolen to win his case. Trump just needs to cast doubt on the prosecution’s theory that he knew he was lying when he said it. It will be completely ethical for Trump’s lawyers to introduce these issues as part of his defense. He will probably be found not guilty in this case.

The real impact, however, is that Trump supporters are going to get fired up about the 2020 steal again. They’re going to be hearing evidence they haven’t heard before. It won’t matter if the government has a good answer; their selection bias will make Trump supporters even more emotional and agitated.

This Isn’t a Bug, It’s a Feature

Like I said, at first I thought this move was a blunder. But I now see that it’s exactly what is intended. If the Jan 6 trial is the first criminal trial, Trump is likely to walk away a free man because the prosecution’s case is weak. But there will be plenty of people that will get upset over the new information that will come to light. If the Jan 6 trial takes place after Trump has been convicted of something else, it only increases the amount of agitation among his supporters. Will Trump be releasing evidence about the 2020 election in the run-up to these trials? Doing so will only stir the pot even more.

This will all be going on while the ATF continues to crack down on FFLs and other people. The IRS will continue collecting 4473s. This is all designed to get people on one side of the political spectrum super upset and feeling outcast.

Things will get spicy when Trump gets convicted. Trump may very well have social media posts prepared to be released if he is incarcerated. Remember, most of his supporters haven’t been taking these indictments seriously. They’re going to have their expectations suddenly and violently altered. What if Trump calls for people to “peacefully assemble” in Washington, DC and have their voices heard to demand his release? Do you think the next big demonstration is going to be unarmed? What if 10,000 armed people arrive at the Supreme Court to demand that Trump be released? That doesn’t make any sense, but that wouldn’t stop many people. Does that happen non-violently? Will the Biden Administration call out the National Guard to stop them from assembling? How about the DC police? Officer Byrd has shown them there aren’t any consequences for shooting protestors, as long as the protesters are on the “wrong” side. What are the chances that we can get through this without a lot of rounds being expended on both sides?

How about the various prosecutors involved in these cases? Is some idiot going to do something? After a conviction, there will be plenty of far-left politicians dancing in the streets. Antifa/BLM/etc. will most likely be demonstrating to show their approval. This won’t go over well with some on the other side. What are the chances some idiot doesn’t do a mag dump into a crowd?

What are the chances this isn’t just setting up a Reichstag Fire? It would be a very easy false flag operation to kick off a mass kinetic event. There are plenty of people that will be worked up into enough of a lather to fall for this, on both sides.

Joe Biden Will Step Down, And Here Comes Gavin

Biden isn’t the guy for 2024. It’s Gavin Newsom. It’s clear to see the plan is for Joe to step down, Kamala gets to be the first woman president for a short time, and Gavin is the candidate for 2024. I’m not going to provide cites for this speculation; there are plenty of sources out there on the internet.

Why is Gavin going so hard on gun control when he’s got national aspirations? In general, Democrats keep quiet on guns because gun control is not a popular issue. So why now? Because Gavin’s in on the plan. He won’t even have to run for the nomination; he’ll be drafted. And those calling the shots behind the scenes are going to set up a situation so that the guy who was in favor of a gun ban is a shoo-in. If Gavin is running against Trump, he won’t even have to debate. “I refuse to debate with a convicted felon.” Joe Biden can use that line, too, if I’m wrong about Gavin being the Democrats’ guy for 2024.

They’ll Get What They’ve Been Dreaming Of

When purported Trump supporters start shooting politicians, national guardsmen, and cops, Gavin will get people to say “Enough is enough!” We’ll have reached the “breaking point” that he was anticipating. We’re no longer talking about limiting magazine sizes or banning rifles that look scary. The left is playing for European-style disarmament. Gavin is going to get his “continued wave of mass carnage” served on a platter, and Donald Trump is going to serve it.

There’s a core of Second Amendment supporters in the US who are of the “from my cold dead hands” ilk. And there’s a slightly smaller core on the opposite side who want complete disarmament and are willing to send people with guns to your house to take your guns away. But there is a large portion in the middle that is currently against gun control. With crime increasing as a result of defunding the police, it makes sense to most people that they should be able to protect themselves. But there’s been a steady, grinding attack on gun culture. There are a lot of people who aren’t that hardcore or principles-based when it comes to defending our fundamental right of self defense.

There’s a reason why the left calls modern sporting rifles “weapons of war.” They know they’re not going to get an “assault weapons ban” — even John Tester, who votes 93% with Chuck Schumer, has come out against Biden’s AWB. This is all battlespace preparation. The left thinks and acts for the long term.

Those people in the middle will be swayed when they see what will be portrayed as pitched battles in the streets by the media. While CNN called the 2020 George Floyd demonstrations “fiery, but mostly peaceful” they’ll take something as innocuous as a group of peaceful, armed demonstrators with rifles slung and call it “paramilitary groups on the hunt for politicians.” Recall how just a few years ago the left was able to implement huge changes in the way we conduct elections because of what was for most people the risk of a sniffle or bad cold. Imagine what an election would look like if the left and the mainstream media can point to actual violence?

What couldn’t be done with school shootings will be accomplished easily when people think they are watching society crumbling. If an unguided tour by people wearing buffalo horns and walking between velvet ropes was “an unprecedented assault on the seat of American democracy,” imagine how demonstrations that result in actual shooting will be portrayed. If this plays out the way I see it, it’s going to be only the “cold dead hands” people left in favor of gun rights.

Don’t get me wrong. I’m doubtful this scenario plays out with merely a program of complete civilian disarmament. It’s going to get much worse. But this is a gun rights blog, so I’m looking at this through that particular lens.

If you don’t think this scenario is likely, then kindly point out which of the above steps isn’t going to happen. Which one has even less than a 50% chance of happening? This is not some crazy conspiracy theory. Every single thing I’ve pointed out is widely published. There’s no claim to secret knowledge. There’s no hidden agenda attributed to the main actors; they’ve all been quite open and clear about what they want. The only speculation is forward-looking. The situation is serious. I sincerely hope I’m wrong about this, but I just don’t see it.

There’s Only One Way Out of This Mess

For the good of the country, Donald Trump needs to withdraw from the race. He needs to make a sacrifice. There’s no way out of this if we continue on the same path.

Withdrawing from politics won’t get the charges dropped, but it will give him the ability to mount an effective defense while he’s not also trying to run for president. Trump would still be likely to get convicted of something, but at least the stakes won’t be that high. Everyone’s attention will be on some other Republican who will be running against Gavin Newsom. Even the Manhattan jury might be less inclined to convict Trump if they think he’s not a threat.

Would Trump do that? Just walk away, for the good of the country? Doubtful. The man has too big of an ego to make a sacrifice like that. I suspect he’d rather see things burn down than he step down.

The only other way out of this is for Trump to lose all support and become a non-issue. You may like Trump. You may think he’s vulgar but like his policies. Regardless, you have to withdraw your support. You need to be vocally against him and in favor of another candidate. The stakes are too high to cling to the cult of personality.

We’re going to have to nuke Trump’s political career from orbit. It’s the only way to be sure. Stop supporting Trump.